May 2026
Insights · Articles, newsletter, podcast
What the watch turns up, written down.
Analysis from Mission Grey and the Guild network: how external developments move, what they change, and what a decision‑maker should do about them.
Articles
Analysis and perspectives
Written by Mission Grey and its expert network.
External developments, emerging risks, and what they mean for the people accountable for the call.
Strategy
Welcoming Runi Irnandari Arnowo to Mission Grey
Runi brings more than three decades of leadership experience from some of the world's leading financial institutions, including Deutsche Bank and Citi. Most recently, she served as Managing Director at Deutsche Bank.
ReadStrategy
Strengthening Mission Grey's U.S. Strategy and External Intelligence Leadership
Mission Grey is pleased to announce that Mercy Kuo has joined the company as Head of Strategy, United States. She previously served as Executive Vice President and Head of Analysis at a U.S. corporate risk intelligence consultancy advising Fortune 500 companies.
ReadStrategy
Lauri Byckling Joins Mission Grey as Strategic Advisor
Mission Grey is pleased to announce that Lauri Byckling has joined the company as Strategic Advisor. He spent decades at Deloitte, where he held several senior leadership positions.
ReadMarkets
From Research to Decisions: What Cambridge Judge Business School Reveals About External Intelligence
The broader conclusion is straightforward. External volatility is no longer an exception; it is the operating environment. Companies that treat external intelligence as a core part of decision-making infrastructure will operate differently from those that do not.
ReadStrategy
Interconnected Risks: What Spatial Economics Reveals About the Real World
Economic and environmental outcomes are not local. They are interconnected across borders. The analysis demonstrates strong spillover effects.
ReadGeopolitics
Asia’s Geopolitical Risks Are Everyone’s Business Now; Lessons from Asia
Across my discussions, a striking theme emerged: trust in US security guarantees is fading fast. A Singapore-based geopolitical expert told me simply: “We don’t even debate anymore whether the US is a reliable partner. We know it isn’t.”
ReadGeopolitics
Mission Grey at the Deutsch-Finnisches Businessforum 2025
The forum brings together German and Finnish companies, government representatives, and public institutions to explore solutions in industry, energy, and logistics.
ReadStrategy
Mission Grey at Horasis Global Meeting 2025 In São Paulo
Known as one of the world’s most trusted communities for dialogue, Horasis brings together decision-makers to address urgent questions of globalization, sustainability, and geopolitical change.
ReadGeopolitics
Janaki Kates Joins Mission Grey as Head of Intelligence
Janaki brings nearly two decades of experience at the highest levels of the U.S. government and industry. She began her career as a CIA analyst focused on foreign space programs.
ReadStrategy
How Fuzzy Real Options Help Companies Navigate Geopolitical Risks
Traditional financial models rely on probabilities, clean numbers that describe how likely each outcome is. But in geopolitically sensitive environments, reliable data is often missing.
ReadStrategy
Modeling Uncertainty: How Fuzzy Copulas Strengthen External Intelligence
In global markets, uncertainty is not an inconvenience; it is the environment. Economic dependencies shift with political decisions, commodity prices react to shocks in unexpected ways, and asset relationships that look stable on paper can change dramatically in a few days.
ReadGuild Newsletter
Monthly · By email
Curated intelligence from the Guild.
Global signals, expert perspective, and the decision each one points at. Assembled monthly by the Mission Grey Guild and sent as a single edition.
What you receive
- Key global signals affecting decisions.
- Expert interpretation and context.
- Decision‑relevant insight, not analysis for its own sake.
Editions are delivered by email. Ask for the current one and we will add you to the list. Your information is not shared.
Ask for the latest edition
Latest edition · June 2026
When Ballots Meet Balance Sheets
Elections matter, but state capacity matters more.
Markets are increasingly pricing fiscal credibility, institutional competence, and the ability to execute policy rather than campaign promises or ideological labels.
Political risk has become infrastructure risk.
Electricity grids, ports, supply chains, public finances, and demographic pressure now weigh on business strategy as heavily as elections and legislation.
AI’s next challenge is political legitimacy.
As data centers drive demand for electricity and water, AI infrastructure becomes a local political issue, and community acceptance becomes a condition for digital investment.
The new investment landscape rewards resilience over prediction.
From Brazil and Peru to the United States and Malaysia, the issue separates structural economic change from short‑term political volatility.
The Mission Grey ecosystem is widening.
The issue introduces the collaboration with Polylocal and the launch of Field Notes, a premium briefing on Taiwan’s political, regulatory, and economic developments, alongside new Guild contributions and Guildmaster Pekka Virkki’s latest book.
Archive
Editions before the current one are direct downloads.
Podcast
A Mission Grey Guild podcast
This Week in Business Risk.
Expert guests on the forces reshaping global business: great power competition, wars, pandemics, and the compounding shocks of the polycrisis era. Hosted by Rwizi Rweizooba Ainomugisha, a member of the Mission Grey Guild and founder of the Wargaming Weekly newsletter.
Also on Podcast Index, Podchaser, Pocket Casts, Listen Notes.
04
Pekka Virkki on Ballots vs. Balance Sheets, Maritime Chokepoints, Post‑Finlandization & South Asian Food
Pekka Virkki joins Rwizi Rweizooba Ainomugisha to discuss ballots versus balance sheets, maritime chokepoints, post‑Finlandization, and South Asian food in Northern European restaurants.
Pekka Virkki · Co‑founder, Editor‑in‑Chief & Guildmaster · Mission Grey
03
Rwizi on US Critical Minerals Push, Indian Mining & Pax Silica Ultimatum
Host Rwizi Rweizooba Ainomugisha breaks down the week's four biggest risk signals: a $3 billion US push to break China's grip on critical minerals, India's overhaul of mining taxation, a new India‑Africa trade corridor, and a leaked ultimatum forcing 35 countries to pick a side in the AI race.
Rwizi Rweizooba Ainomugisha · Host · Mission Grey Guild member
02
Mercy Kuo on Wargaming, China Risk, and Eating Black
Mercy Kuo joins Rwizi Rweizooba Ainomugisha to discuss wargaming as a decision tool, how to think about China risk, and the discipline of turning uncertainty into action.
Mercy Kuo · Author of The China Risk Report · Mission Grey team member
01
Lauri Tähtinen on Human-Machine Teaming, Nairobi
In the first episode, Lauri Tähtinen joins Rwizi Rweizooba Ainomugisha to discuss human‑machine teaming and what it means for decision‑makers operating in complex environments.
Lauri Tähtinen · Human‑machine teaming expert
Access
See what you are currently missing.
Some decisions depend on what others miss. Mission Grey is an enterprise platform; access is by request.